Counting the Outs First
A straight draw is only as good as the number of cards that complete it. Every straight draw falls into one of a few shapes, and each shape has a fixed number of outs.
| Draw | Example | Outs |
|---|---|---|
| Gutshot (inside) | 9♠8♥ on K-7-5 (need a 6) | 4 |
| Open-ended | 9♠8♥ on 7-6-2 (need a T or 5) | 8 |
| Double gutshot | J♣9♣ on Q-T-7 (need a K or 8) | 8 |
| Open-ended + flush draw | 9♠8♠ on 7♠6♠2♦ | 15 |
The Exact Odds
Assuming you’re on the flop with 47 unseen cards:
| Outs | Hit on turn | Hit on river (if missed turn) | Hit by river (two cards) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 (gutshot) | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| 8 (open-ended) | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| 15 (straight + flush) | 31.9% | 32.6% | 54.1% |
The “by the river” number is what matters when you’re deciding whether to see two cards. An open-ender is close to a 1-in-3 shot. A gutshot is 1-in-6. The combo draw is a favorite against most one-pair hands.
The Rule of 2 and 4, Applied
You don’t need to memorize the table. Multiply your outs by 2 for one card to come or 4 for two cards:
- Gutshot: 4 × 4 = 16% (actual: 16.5%)
- Open-ender: 8 × 4 = 32% (actual: 31.5%)
- Combo draw: 15 × 4 = 60% (actual: 54.1% — the shortcut overshoots above 12 outs)
Outs That Don’t Count
This is where straight draws get players in trouble. Some “outs” complete your straight but hand your opponent something better.
- A flush card. Holding 9♠8♥ on 7♦6♦2♣, the 5♦ and T♦ give you a straight but put three diamonds on board. Against a flush draw, those two outs are worth much less. Count them as half outs, or discount them entirely against an aggressive opponent.
- A board pair. If a card that completes your straight also pairs the board, someone with a set now has a full house.
- The bottom of the straight. With 9♠8♥ on T-J-2, a 7 gives you the straight, but a Q gives anyone holding a K a higher one. You’re drawing to a hand that might already be second-best.
Discounting bad outs is the difference between an easy call and a slow bleed.
Gutshots Need Implied Odds
At 16.5%, a gutshot rarely gets the right pot odds to call a bet. What saves it is implied odds: straights are disguised, so when you hit you often win a big pot. Calling a small bet with a gutshot in a deep-stacked game is fine. Calling a large bet with one is not.
Summary
- Gutshot = 4 outs, 16.5% by the river.
- Open-ended and double gutshot = 8 outs, 31.5% by the river.
- Straight plus flush draw = 15 outs, a favorite against one pair.
- Discount outs that also complete a flush or pair the board.
- Gutshots need implied odds; open-enders can often call on pot odds alone.